Note before reading: This is written in the infamous language of “weather”, no English translation currently available.
I think your plan sounds reasonable. I’ll bet you have to head a little farther NE than you might expect.
Winds & seas should not be too bad until early Tue12 morning…but there’s a chance conditions could be ENE-E near 25k by dawn Tue12 & stay that way thru Wed13…with seas building from 8′/7-8 sec Tue12 morning, to 10′/8-sec by Wed13 morning.
So, I’d advise trying to get into PuertoRico late Mon11 afternoon or evening, if possible. Unfortunately, the TIMING of the ESE to E wind shift occurs so late that you may not get to PuertoRico till Tue12 morning.
I’ll base your forecast on a destination of SanJuan. If you’re heading to the S Coast of PuertoRico, you could pass thru the MonaPassage, then E-ward along S Coast. I’d still advise getting East to your destination in PuertoRico on Mon11, if possible, as it’s going to be very rough
IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A DEFINITE DESTINATION, Boqueron (SW Coast of
PuertoRico) is very nice…a cool town with public beaches & bars.
Leave VHF ch 16 on. Often, when entering the harbor, a guy will hail you on VHF16…he has a NewYorkCity/Hispanic accent, and his VHF call sign is “Rolling Thunder”…try hailing him if he doesn’t hail you…his name is Raul. He’s a nice guy who will take you to Customs/Immigration in Mayaguez in his taxi, and he’s usually reasonable. Ponce & Salinas are OK, too, but not as much fun as Boqueron.
To get to Boqueron…turn S a little sooner than the guidance below.
You want to pass very close to the NW tip of PuertoRico, then sail S, down PuertoRico’s W Coast. The Mona can be nasty, but within a few miles of PuertoRico, you’ll have a nice ride.
Fri8…RIDGE persists along 26N…you’ll see ESE@15-18.
Sat9…RIDGE along 26N weakens…you see ESE@12-15.
Sun10…FRONT Bermuda to C Bahamas finally weakens RIDGE along 25N-26N, and allows your wind to BACK to the E…
along 24N ESE@10
along 23N E@13
along 22N E@18
You probably want to be between 23N-24N on Sun10 morning, then turn South.
Mon11…RIDGE weakens E of area along 26N. FRONT weakens 27N/65W…24N/72W. New, stronger RIDGE SE US. You’re near 21N, with 080@12-14.
Mon11 night…That stronger RIDGE gains control of your areas as FRONT dissipates…ENE winds build to 20k, then to 25k by Tue12…and seas begin building, which they’ll continue to do thru Tue12 night.
So…timing is going to be important. You want to make most of your East-ing tomorrow & Sat9 & Sat9 night, before winds back to E. If you still want to make more East-ing, you should motorsail ESE-SE into Sun10. Then, when you think you need to turn SSE in order to reach PuertoRico’s protection by late Mon11, you’ll find a nice sail just-forward-of-the-beam. If you find yourselves out there Mon11 night into Tue12 as conditions build, you’ll have to fall-off onto a broad reach, and just make for wherever you can to the SSW-SW.
Another thought…if you need to make Salinas or Ponce or somewhere in E or SE PuertoRico, you might consider passing just E of PuertoRico late Mon11, then sail S & W along the Coast Tue12 morning.
Departing Fri8 morning from SouthCaicos Fri8, morning: 120@18, seas 6′/7-sec from E-ESE, wind-chop to 5′.
Fri8, evening, near 22N / 70-30W: 120@17, seas 5-6′/7-sec from E-ESE, wind-chop to 5′.
Sat9, morning, near 22-30N / 69-30W: 120@16, isolated showers & mild squalls to 20-25k, seas same, wind-chop to 4-5′.
Sat9, evening, near 23N / 68-30W: 120@12, isolated showers & mild squalls to 20k, seas same, wind-chop 3′.
Sun10, morning, near 23-30N / 67W: 100@14, seas 5′/7-8 sec from E-ESE, wind-chop 3-4′.
Sun10, evening, near 22-30N / 66-40W: 100@13, seas 5-6′/7-8 sec from E-ESE, wind-chop 3-4′.
Mon11, morning, near 21N / 66-20W: 080@15, seas 6′/8-sec from E-ESE, wind-chop 4′.
Mon11, evening, near 20N / 66W: 060@15 building to 20k, seas 6-7′/6-sec wind-chop, wind-chop 4-5′ building to 6′, and 7′ after midnight.
Tue12, morning, near SanJuan: 080@22G27, seas 8′/6-7 sec wind-chop.
If you need additional information, please let me know…Chris.